The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) has projected a wider margin of victory for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, following a Federal High Court ruling in Abuja, which invalidated the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) led by former Senate President David Mark.
The group said the ruling, which also nullified decisions taken by the Mark-led leadership, including the party’s May 25 presidential primary that produced former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as its candidate, could significantly alter the political calculations ahead of the 2027 election.
PIG made this known in a press statement issued in Lagos on Friday and signed by its Chairman, Lai Omotola, explaining that the development had necessitated an adjustment to its November edition projection, particularly regarding Atiku’s electoral prospects.
The group had, in its projection released on Thursday in Lagos, anticipated a closely contested presidential election among the three leading contenders, with Tinubu maintaining a narrow lead, Labour Party’s Peter Obi occupying second position and Atiku coming third.
However, following the Abuja court ruling, PIG said its revised assessment indicated that Tinubu could secure a considerably wider margin of victory, particularly in the northern region, if the judgment is upheld on appeal and Atiku is ultimately excluded from the presidential ballot.
According to the group, the possible absence of Atiku from the contest could influence voting patterns in the North, where the former vice president has traditionally enjoyed considerable political support.
It argued that a significant section of northern voters might prefer Tinubu completing his remaining four-year tenure rather than risk another eight years under an Obi presidency.
The group, however, acknowledged that the implications of the ruling would depend largely on the outcome of the anticipated appeal by the ADC, noting that the legal process could still change the political landscape.
PIG said its December edition of the presidential election projection would provide a more comprehensive assessment of the development and its implications for the major contenders.
The Federal High Court ruling, presided over by Justice Peter Lifu, declared the Mark-led interim National Working Committee of the ADC illegal and invalidated decisions taken under its leadership, including the party’s presidential primary.
The development introduces fresh uncertainty into the ADC’s preparations for the 2027 general election, particularly regarding its leadership and the status of the presidential ticket produced under the now-invalidated party structure.
For PIG, the court decision represents a significant variable in its November projection, with the group indicating that the eventual judicial outcome could substantially reshape the contest among the leading presidential contenders.
